Donne d’Europa, Aerei e Riscaldamento Globale
Riprendo l’argomento di un post precedente, che parlava della giusta proposta UE di includere il settore dell’aviazione civile nel protocollo di Kyoto poiché penso di aver trovato una delle pro “motrici” dell’idea: e’ Margot Wallstrom, vice-presidente della commissione, che ora ha anche un blog dal quale si puo’ arrivare allo studio di impatto completo sull’argomento.
Un commento: dal blog della motivata signora si capisce splendidamente la distanza dalla gente dei tecnocrati…
Il sito dell’Unione Europea annuncia il risultato del PESETA Project, uno studio sugli effetti del riscaldamento in Europa ed in particolare nel sud Europa. La Repubblica ed il Financial Times e la Rai ne fanno copertina…
Nel maremagnum di europa.eu lo studio non si trovo, nemmeno nel sito del Direttorato all’Ambiente…avranno dato l’esclusiva al FT per qualche giorno (“a copy of which has been obtained by the Financial Times”)
I risultati principali sono quà:
The report, which draws on existing material and new information from the Commission’s Global Monitoring for the Environment and Security satellite mapping project, posits two scenarios. One envisages a 2.2 degree temperature rise, the other a 3 degree rise.
Crop yields would rise by up to 70 per cent in northern Europe but fall by up to a fifth in the south, depending on the temperature increase.
Plants and animals associated with certain geographic regions are moving or dying, the report says.
The sea level could rise by up to a metre. As soon as 2020 the total cost would be €4.4bn under the first scenario, €5.9bn under the more extreme one, rising to €42.5bn by 2080. Shoring up coastal defences and rebuilding beaches would save two-thirds of the money in the long run, reducing the cost to €2.2bn a year under the rosy scenario.
The ocean would acidify, hitting fish stocks. Fish would also migrate northwards. Droughts and floods would be more severe. The cost of a flood in the Danube basin, as suffered by Hungary a few years ago, could rise 19 per cent. An extra 240,000 people would be affected.
With 2.2% warming, almost 29,000 extra people would die annually in southern Europe from 2071-2100. In the north, 27,000 would die from heat but 20,000 lives would be saved from the cold.
Northern Europeans would be able to holiday at home as the North and Baltic seas warmed. This would jeopardise the €100bn a year spent on holidays in southern Europe.
The annual migration in search of sun, sand and sea is the single largest flow of tourists across the globe, accounting for a sixth of all tourist trips in 2000, the report says.
The Commission also wants to include methane and nitrous oxide, two greenhouse gases produced by mining, agriculture and transport, in the emissions trading scheme. Reducing their output would slow global warming and save billions in public health costs, the report claims. They shorten the average European citizen’s life by eight months, it says.
The report has a hopeful conclusion. A Belgian government study last year found that cutting carbon dioxide emissions in the EU by between 15 and 30 per cent between 1990 and 2020 would have no overall effect on jobs, as new ones would be created in high-technology sectors such as renewable energy. Reducing global emissions in 2050 to a level that is 25 per cent below that of 1990 is both technically and economically achievable, the study concludes.
